Projects--especially complex ones--are inherently risky. Between time constraints, technical challenges, and resource issues, things can easily go wrong--making the identification of potential risks an essential component of every project manager's job.Fully updated and consistent with the Risk Management Professional (RMP) certification and the Guide to the Project Management Body of Knowledge (PMBOK(R)), Identifying and Managing Project Risk remains the definitive resource for project managers seeking to guard against failure.Drawing on real-world situations and hundreds of examples, the book outlines the risk management process and provides proven methods for project risk planning. Readers will learn how to use high-level risk assessment tools, implement a system for monitoring and controlling projects, and properly document every consideration. Analyzing aspects such as project scope, available resources, and scheduling, the third edition also offers fresh guidance on program risk management, qualitative and quantitative risk analysis, simulation and modeling, and significant non-project risks.This practical book will help readers eliminate surprises and keep projects on track.
Contents Acknowledgments vii Introduction 1 CHAPTER 1: Why Project Risk Management? 4 The Doomed Project * Risk * Opportunities and Risks * Benefits of Project Risk Management * Costs of Project Risk Management * The Project Risk Management Process * Anatomy of a Failed Project: The First Panama Canal Project CHAPTER 2: Planning for Risk Management 22 Project Selection * Overall Project Planning Processes * Defining Risk Management for the Project * Risk Management Infrastructure for the Organization * The PERIL Database * A Second Panama Canal Project: Sponsorship and Initiation (1902--1904) CHAPTER 3: Identifying Project Scope Risk 49 Sources of Scope Risk * Defining Deliverables * High-Level Risk Assessment Tools * Setting Limits * Work Breakdown Structure * Other Scope-Related Risks * Documenting the Risks * Panama Canal: Setting the Objective (1905--1906) CHAPTER 4: Identifying Project Schedule Risk 79 Sources of Schedule Risk * Activity Definition * Estimating Activity Duration * Activity Sequencing * Documenting the Risks * Panama Canal: Planning (1905--1907) CHAPTER 5: Identifying Project Resource Risk 108 Sources of Resource Risk * Resource Planning * Staff Acquisition * Outsourcing * Effort Estimates Adjusted for Risk * Cost Estimates, Budgets, and Risk * Documenting the Risks * Panama Canal: Resources (1905--1907) CHAPTER 6: Managing Project Constraints and Documenting Risks 136 Analyzing Constraints * Managing Opportunities * Scope Modification * Resource Modification * Schedule Modification * Assessing Options and Updating Plans * Seeking Missing Risks * Creating a Risk Register * Panama Canal: Improving the Plan (1906) CHAPTER 7: Quantifying and Analyzing Activity Risks 161 Qualitative and Quantitative Risk Analysis * Probability and Impact * Qualitative Risk Assessment * Quantitative Risk Assessment * Panama Canal: Risks (1906--1914) CHAPTER 8: Managing Activity Risks 189 Root Cause Analysis * Categories of Risk * Selecting Risks to Address * Risk Response Planning * Dealing with Risk Causes * Implementing Preventative Ideas * Dealing with Risk Effects * Documenting Your Risk Plans and Risk Owners * Managing a Specific Risk * Bow Tie Analysis for Documenting Risk Responses * Panama Canal: Risk Plans (1906--1914) CHAPTER 9: Quantifying and Analyzing Project Risk 232 Project-Level Risk * Aggregating Risk Responses * Project Modeling and Simulations * Integrated Schedule/Cost Assessment * System Analysis * Critical Chain Considerations * Questionnaires and Surveys * Analysis of Scale * Project Appraisal * Scenario Analysis * Project Metrics * Financial Metrics * Panama Canal: Overall Risks (1907) CHAPTER 10: Managing Project Risk 276 Project Documentation Requirements * Project Start-Up * Selecting and Implementing Project Metrics * Establishing Reserves and Managing for Contingency * Project Baseline Negotiation * Project Plan Validation * Specification Change Control * Panama Canal: Adjusting the Objective (1907) CHAPTER 11: Monitoring and Controlling Risky Projects 299 Don't Panic * Applying the Plan * Project Monitoring * Collecting Project Status * Metrics and Trend Analysis * Responding to Issues * Communication and Risk Reporting * Project Archive * Managing Risk Reserves * Project Reviews and Risk Reassessment * Taking Over a Troubled Project * Panama Canal: Risk-Based Replanning (1908) CHAPTER 12: Closing Projects 321 Project Closure * Project Retrospective Analysis * Panama Canal: Completion (1914) CHAPTER 13: Program, Portfolio, and Enterprise Risk Management 330 Project Risk Management in Context * Program Risk Management * Portfolio Risk Management * Enterprise Risk Management * Panama Canal: Over the Years CHAPTER 14: Conclusion 367 Choosing to Act * Managing Your Risks * Panama Canal: The Twenty-First Century APPENDIX: Selected Detail from the PERIL Database 373 Scope Risks * Schedule Risks * Resource Risks Index 381
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